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Today's Melbourne Cup: predicting the weather is harder than picking a horse.

Despite predictions of heavy rain overnight (there was none) and showers this morning with possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, Cup Day has dawned warm and sunny.

So how can you pick a winner with all that uncertainty?

It's difficult. But here's mine:

1. Vinnie Roe.
2. Elvstroem.
3. Pacific Dancer.

We're going to pack a picnic - egg and lettuce rolls, cheese and gherkin relish rolls, some nice buttercake and a flask of tea - and find somewhere nice to spread a blanket in the sun, under a tree ... and hope the rain holds off.

UPDATE
Vinnie Roe's connections were to announce at 8am this morning whether the horse would run - and it would only run if there is a heavy track. They have just now confirmed Vinnie Roe is a starter, yet the weather bureau has just advised the rain should hold off until after the race. Clearly, there's plenty of bluff being called.


UPDATE 2

The heavens broke open two hours before the race. Makybe Diva held off Vinnie Roe to win, carrying a record-breaking weight and becoming the first mare to win the Cup twice.

PS: Double post today! See below.

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